Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 20/0511Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 389 km/s at 20/1135Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/1636Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/0712Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 126
Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 20 Jan 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
