Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 19/2118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12611 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Feb, 23 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (22 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 070
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  008/008-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor Storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/40/25