Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19/2310Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 592 km/s at 20/0805Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/0455Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15809 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 100
Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 20 Feb 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15