Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 February 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
February 20, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 February 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 20/1522Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 409 km/s at 19/2232Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/0727Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 774 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (22 Feb) and unsettled levels on day three (23 Feb).

 

III.  Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           20 Feb 120

Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb 120/125/125

90 Day Mean        20 Feb 149

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  005/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  006/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  007/008-012/015-011/012

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/30/25

Minor Storm           01/10/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/30/35

Major-severe storm    20/40/35

 

SpaceRef staff editor.