Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 19/2211Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 615 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 070
Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 20 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10