Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 20/1940Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/0714Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/0134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 535 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 067
Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 20 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 006/006-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/05/05