Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 708 km/s at 20/1717Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 20/0310Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/0226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14785 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (21 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Aug 068
Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug 068/070/070
90 Day Mean        20 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  014/018-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/40/40