Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 19/2143Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/0208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/2243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 206 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Aug, 23 Aug) and quiet levels on day two (22 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 078
Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 20 Aug 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 009/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/15/20