Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
20/1251Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Aug,
22 Aug, 23 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 412 km/s at 19/2256Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 20/0427Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 19/2111Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 Aug, 22 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (23 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 118
Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 120/130/130
90 Day Mean 20 Aug 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 008/010-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/10
Major-severe storm 15/20/05