Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 April 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr, 23 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 363 km/s at 20/1956Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 19/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/1903Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 406 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Apr, 22 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Apr 070
Predicted 21 Apr-23 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 20 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 15/20/20