Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 September 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (03 Sep) and expected tobe very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 02/2028Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/1127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/1037Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7837 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Sep, 05 Sep) and quiet levels on day two (04 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 086
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 085/082/080
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 008/008-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/35