Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 September 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 02/1358Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/1457Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1621Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 19396 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 068
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 068/068/070
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/15