Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 September 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
September 2, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on
02 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 02/1358Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/1457Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1621Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 19396 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (
03 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 068
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 068/068/070
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/15

SpaceRef staff editor.