Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 September 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 02/1541Z from Region 2672 (N08W98). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 02/0239Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/2335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/0326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7573 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 100
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 101/101/098
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  017/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  013/015-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/25/20