Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 September 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
September 2, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 738 km/s at 02/2100Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/2156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/2215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11398 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 095
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 029/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 026/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 009/012-009/012-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/10

SpaceRef staff editor.