Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/1315Z from Region 2152 (S16W12). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep,
05 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
521 km/s at 02/0825Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/1646Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/0439Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
02/2040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6112 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Sep,
04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 25/35/35
Class X 01/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 136
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 140/135/130
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 008/008-007/010-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/15
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/20/10