Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
538 km/s at 02/0319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0200Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/0345Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3161 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 106
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 110/110/112
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/20