Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (03 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 01/2143Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/2139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/0902Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 140 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 087
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 087/085/085
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 008/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20