Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 02/0644Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/2214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/2233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 768 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Oct, 04 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (05 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 067
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  008/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/30/30