Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 02/0502Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/1339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 28078 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 086
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct 086/086/086
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/15