- Status Report
- Dec 5, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 October 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 02/0502Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/1339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 28078 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 086
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 086/086/086
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/15