Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 October 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
October 2, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 569 km/s at 01/2129Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/1836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 53511 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (03 Oct, 04 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 082
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 080/080/085
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 014/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 010/012-011/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10


SpaceRef staff editor.