Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 2, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 02/0013Z from Region 2422 (S20W83). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (03 Oct) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (04 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (05 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 407 km/s at 02/1633Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/2302Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/2136Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (03 Oct, 04 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (05 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 70/65/50
Class X 25/20/15
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 107
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 095/085/090
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 016/024-025/033-018/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/35
Minor Storm 20/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/65/50

SpaceRef staff editor.