Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 02/1922Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/0303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 603 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 082
Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 02 Nov 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10