Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 November 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
November 2, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 02/0718Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2296 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 071
Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 02 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25

SpaceRef staff editor.