Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 01/2203Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 02/1255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/1252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10939 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 076
Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 076/074/072
90 Day Mean 02 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 007/008-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 30/40/20