Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 2, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 02/1000Z from Region 2445 (N15W55). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at 02/0638Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 02/1113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/1229Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor storm to severe storm levels on day one (03 Nov), quiet to major storm levels on day two (04 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 122
Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 02 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 012/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 038/062-016/021-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/30
Minor Storm 35/40/10
Major-severe storm 40/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 01/05/15
Minor Storm 10/20/30
Major-severe storm 85/70/35

SpaceRef staff editor.