Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to

02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at

02/1703Z from Region 2201 (S05E23). There are currently 6 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a

slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Nov,

04 Nov, 05 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

539 km/s at 01/2252Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/0251Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1212Z. Protons greater

than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at

02/2045Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a

peak level of 827 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (03 Nov, 05 Nov)

and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Nov). Protons greater than

10 Mev are likely to cross threshold on day one (03 Nov) and have a

chance of crossing threshold on day two (04 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     70/30/01

PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 Nov 124

Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov 120/120/118

90 Day Mean        02 Nov 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  005/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  008/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  009/012-007/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/25/30

Minor Storm           10/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    40/30/40