Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
02/0446Z from Region 1885 (S19W16). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov,
05 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 391 km/s at
02/2037Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/2039Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/1402Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 02/2000Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 163 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05
Nov).

III. Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 142
Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 02 Nov 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10