Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed atm02/1920Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 01/2212Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/0007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1538 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May).

III. Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 112
Predicted 03 May-05 May 115/115/113
90 Day Mean 02 May 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10