Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 May 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 02/0110Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 02/0926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/0020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 262 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (03 May, 04 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 May).

III. Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 072
Predicted 03 May-05 May 070/070/072
90 Day Mean 02 May 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 011/012-011/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/30