Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (03 May) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (04 May, 05 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 579 km/s at 02/0901Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/2202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/0140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2978 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (04 May, 05 May).

III. Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 069
Predicted 03 May-05 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 02 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 008/010-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10