Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 May 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 01/2150Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/1058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/0630Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 727 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May).

III.  Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 067
Predicted   03 May-05 May 067/067/068
90 Day Mean        02 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/15