Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 02/0842Z from Region 2540 (N22E24). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (03 May) and likely to be low on days two and three (04 May, 05 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 02/1830Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/1908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 874 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (04 May, 05 May).

III. Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 090
Predicted 03 May-05 May 095/105/110
90 Day Mean 02 May 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 021/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 010/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10