Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 May 2015

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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to

02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24

hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low

with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 May,

04 May, 05 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

673 km/s at 02/0420Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/2118Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/1858Z. Electrons greater

than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet levels on days one and two (03 May, 04 May) and quiet to

unsettled levels on day three (05 May).

III.  Event probabilities 03 May-05 May

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 May 106

Predicted   03 May-05 May 105/108/108

90 Day Mean        02 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  006/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  005/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor Storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/15

Minor Storm           20/20/25

Major-severe storm    10/10/20