Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/0510Z from Region 1731 (N09W31). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May,
05 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
509 km/s at 02/0007Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/2101Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/2101Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 759 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 May, 04 May)
and quiet to active levels on day three (05 May).

III. Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 149
Predicted 03 May-05 May 155/155/150
90 Day Mean 02 May 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 016/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 007/008-008/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25