Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 02/1739Z from Region 2958 (N20E24). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 01/2210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 190 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 110
Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 02 Mar 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 005/005-007/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/40