Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.Solar wind speed reached a peak of 657 km/s at 02/2038Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 02/1534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/1332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 605 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 075
Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 02 Mar 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 016/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 015/018-008/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/30
Minor Storm 20/05/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/30/40