Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 02/1107Z from Region 2700 (N07W68). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (03 Mar) and expected to be very low on days two and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 375 km/s at 02/0120Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/0635Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 777 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (03 Mar, 05 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 068
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 070/072/072
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  006/005-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/20/15