- Status Report
- Jan 31, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 March 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 753 km/s at 02/0918Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/0556Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22538 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (03 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 079
Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 079/078/078
90 Day Mean 02 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 021/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 026/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 018/022-011/014-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/20