Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 02/1635Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 01/2322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 172 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Mar, 04 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 098
Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 02 Mar 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 007/008-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/40