Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 02/1931Z from Region 2290 (N22W91). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (03 Mar) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (04 Mar) and likely to be low on day three (05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 697 km/s at 02/1231Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 02/0230Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 02/0347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 356 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (03 Mar, 04 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M 25/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 130
Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 02 Mar 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 023/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 021/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 015/020-012/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
