Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 02/0621Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 01/2121Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9247 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (03 Jun, 04 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 101
Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 02 Jun 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 004/005-006/005-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/30