Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 330 km/s at 02/1258Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/1431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1425Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 211 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Jun, 04 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (05 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 076
Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 02 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 007/008-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/10