Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s at 01/2125Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/0347Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/0309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 191 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 070
Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 072/074/074
90 Day Mean 02 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10