Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 355 km/s at 01/2138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5691 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 070
Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 071/072/072
90 Day Mean 02 Jun 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 008/008-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20