Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 804 km/s at 01/2149Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 02/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/1735Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 28659 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jun 074
Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun 074/073/072
90 Day Mean        02 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  019/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  011/012-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/25