Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 02/0346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1311 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Jun) and unsettled to major storm levels on days two and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 085
Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 02 Jun 092

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 008/010-024/035-021/032

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor Storm 05/35/30
Major-severe storm 01/20/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/70/70