Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 June 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
June 2, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 June 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 02/0702Z from the northeast limb. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at 02/0305Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/0734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/1609Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).

 

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 Jun 101

Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun 105/110/110

90 Day Mean        02 Jun 124

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  009/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor Storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor Storm           20/20/20

Major-severe storm    10/10/10

 

SpaceRef staff editor.