Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jun,
04 Jun, 05 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 327 km/s at
02/0523Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/0850Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1230Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Jun, 04 Jun)
and quiet levels on day three (05 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 105
Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 02 Jun 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/05