Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/0520Z from Region 1762 (S29W22). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jun,
04 Jun, 05 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 822 km/s at 02/1127Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/2339Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 02/0143Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4708
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Jun) and quiet levels on
days two and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 111
Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 115/120/125
90 Day Mean 02 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 041/058
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 013/012-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/15