Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 July 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 02/0622Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 02/1004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 02/0403Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2304 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Jul, 05 Jul) and quiet levels on day two (04 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 100
Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 102/108/110
90 Day Mean 02 Jul 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 008/008-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/25
Minor Storm 10/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/30
Major-severe storm 40/10/40